Economic indices Global Economic Outlook, Q1 2015

GDP growth rates, inflation rates, major currencies versus the US dollar, yield curves, composite median GDP forecasts, composite median currency forecasts, and OECD composite leading indicators

GEO Q1 2015 Appendix - figure 1

GEO Q1 2015 Appendix - figure 2

GEO Q1 2015 Appendix - figure 3

GEO Q1 2015 Appendix - figure 4

GEO Q1 2015 Appendix - figure 5

Yield curves (as of Oct 07, 2014)*

US Treasury bonds & notes

UK gilts

Eurozone govt. benchmark

Japan sovereign

Brazil govt. benchmark

China sovereign

India govt. actives

Russia‡

3 months

0.04

0.50

-0.01

-0.05

11.66

3.23

8.28

10.34

1 year

0.12

0.41

-0.01

0.03

12.53

3.15

8.21

10.69

5 years

1.59

1.31

0.14

0.09

11.73

3.43

8.00

10.95

10 years

2.29

1.97

0.74

0.42

11.96

3.56

7.97

10.68

Composite median GDP forecasts (as of Oct 07, 2014)*

US

UK

Eurozone

Japan

Brazil

China

Russia

2014

2.2

3

0.8

0.9

0.25

7.4

0.5

2015

3

2.6

1.2

1

1

7

0.05

2016

2.9

2.3

1.5

1.1

2

6.76

1

Composite median currency forecasts (as of Oct 07, 2014)*

Q1 15

Q2 15

Q3 15

Q4 15

2014

2015

2016

GBP-USD

1.57

1.56

1.56

1.55

1.58

1.55

1.55

Euro-USD

1.23

1.2

1.2

1.18

1.24

1.18

1.17

USD-Yen

117.5

120

121

123

115

123

123.5

USD-Brazilian real

2.55

2.62

2.63

2.65

2.5

2.65

2.7

USD-Chinese yuan

6.1

6.09

6.06

6.02

6.1

6.02

5.9

USD-Indian rupee

62.1

62.4

62.5

62.5

61.81

62.5

62

USD-Russian ruble

47

47.17

46.35

45

43.55

45

45.25

OECD composite leading indicators (amplitude adjusted)†

US

UK

Eurozone

Japan

Brazil

China

India

Russia Federation

Nov 12

99.8

99.8

98.7

99.4

100.6

100.3

99.4

99.5

Dec 12

99.9

99.8

98.8

99.5

100.6

100.3

99.2

99.4

Jan 13

100.0

99.8

99.0

99.7

100.5

100.3

99.1

99.3

Feb 13

100.1

99.8

99.1

99.9

100.3

100.3

99.0

99.2

Mar 13

100.2

99.9

99.2

100.1

100.1

100.1

98.9

99.0

Apr 13

100.2

99.9

99.3

100.3

99.8

100.0

98.7

98.9

May 13

100.3

100.0

99.4

100.5

99.6

99.9

98.6

98.9

Jun 13

100.4

100.1

99.6

100.7

99.4

99.9

98.5

98.9

Jul 13

100.4

100.4

99.8

100.8

99.2

99.9

98.4

98.9

Aug 13

100.4

100.6

100.0

101.0

99.2

100.0

98.3

99.0

Sep 13

100.4

100.8

100.2

101.1

99.1

100.0

98.3

99.2

Oct 13

100.4

100.9

100.4

101.3

99.2

99.9

98.2

99.3

Nov 13

100.4

101.0

100.5

101.4

99.2

99.8

98.2

99.4

Dec 13

100.4

101.0

100.7

101.4

99.2

99.6

98.2

99.5

Jan 14

100.3

101.0

100.8

101.4

99.1

99.5

98.2

99.6

Feb 14

100.3

101.0

100.9

101.2

99.1

99.2

98.3

99.7

Mar 14

100.3

101.0

100.9

101.0

99.0

99.1

98.4

99.9

Apr 14

100.4

101.0

100.9

100.7

99.0

98.9

98.5

100.1

May 14

100.4

101.0

100.9

100.4

99.0

98.9

98.6

100.3

Jun 14

100.4

101.0

100.9

100.1

99.0

98.8

98.7

100.4

Jul 14

100.4

100.9

100.8

99.9

99.1

98.8

98.8

100.5

Aug 14

100.4

100.7

100.7

99.7

99.2

98.9

99.0

100.6

Sep 14

100.4

100.5

100.7

99.6

99.2

99.1

99.1

100.5

May 14

100.5

101.0

101.0

100.4

98.9

99.0

98.7

100.1

Jun 14

100.6

101.0

100.9

100.1

99.1

99.0

98.9

100.2

Jul 14

100.6

100.8

100.8

99.9

99.4

99.1

99.0

100.3

*Source: Bloomberg ‡MICEX rates †Source: OCED

Note: A rising CLI reading points to an economic expansion if the index is above 100 and a recovery if it is below 100. A CLI which is declining points to an economic downturn if it is above 100 and a slowdown if it is below 100.