Economic indices Global Economic Outlook, Q2 2015

GDP growth rates, inflation rates, major currencies versus the US dollar, yield curves, composite median GDP forecasts, composite median currency forecasts, and OECD composite leading indicators.

GEO Q2 2015 Appendix: Figure 1

GEO Q2 2015 Appendix: Figure 2

GEO Q2 2015 Appendix: Figure 3

GEO Q2 2015 Appendix: Figure 4

GEO Q2 2015 Appendix: Figure 5

Yield curves (as of March 19, 2015)*

  US Treasury bonds & notes UK gilts Eurozone govt. benchmark Japan sovereign Brazil govt. benchmark China sovereign India govt. actives Russia‡
3 months 0.03 0.49 -0.17 0.00 13.16 3.33 8.26 12.80
1 year 0.19 0.37 -0.14 0.01 13.66 3.19 7.92 12.96
5 years 1.39 1.21 -0.10 0.10 11.73 3.45 7.81 13.98
10 years 1.92 1.60 0.20 0.37 12.98 3.57 7.74 13.10

Composite median GDP forecasts (as of March 19, 2015)*

  US UK Eurozone Japan Brazil China Russia
2015 3 2.6 1.3 1 -0.5 7 -4
2016 2.8 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 6.7 0.5
2017 2.7 2.35 1.55 0.75 1.9 6.4 1.75

Composite median currency forecasts (as of March 19, 2015)*

  Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 2015 2016 2017
GBP-USD 1.48 1.49 1.5 1.48 1.5 1.54 1.59
Euro-USD 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.1 1.21
USD-Yen 122 124 125 127 125 128 127.5
USD-Brazilian real 2.93 2.95 3 3.2 3 3.04 2.4
USD-Chinese yuan 6.26 6.24 6.21 6.22 6.2 6.1 6.07
USD-Indian rupee 62.83 63 63.13 63.5 63.13 63.67 61.5
USD-Russian ruble 65 66.87 67.73 64 67.73 56.17 57.38

OECD composite leading indicators (amplitude adjusted)†

  US UK Eurozone Japan Brazil China India Russia Federation
Jan 13 100.0 99.8 98.9 99.6 100.5 100.2 99.4 99.4
Feb 13 100.1 99.8 99.0 99.9 100.3 100.2 99.2 99.3
Mar 13 100.1 99.8 99.1 100.1 100.1 100.2 99.1 99.2
Apr 13 100.2 99.9 99.2 100.3 99.9 100.1 99.0 99.1
May 13 100.3 100.0 99.3 100.5 99.6 100.1 98.9 99.1
Jun 13 100.3 100.1 99.5 100.7 99.4 100.1 98.8 99.1
Jul 13 100.4 100.3 99.7 100.8 99.2 100.1 98.7 99.2
Aug 13 100.4 100.5 99.9 100.9 99.1 100.0 98.6 99.3
Sep 13 100.4 100.7 100.1 101.1 99.1 100.0 98.6 99.5
Oct 13 100.4 100.9 100.3 101.2 99.1 99.9 98.5 99.6
Nov 13 100.4 101.0 100.4 101.3 99.1 99.7 98.5 99.7
Dec 13 100.3 101.0 100.5 101.3 99.1 99.5 98.5 99.8
Jan 14 100.3 101.0 100.6 101.2 99.0 99.3 98.5 100.0
Feb 14 100.3 101.0 100.7 101.1 99.0 99.1 98.5 100.1
Mar 14 100.3 101.0 100.7 100.8 98.9 98.9 98.6 100.3
Apr 14 100.3 101.0 100.7 100.6 98.9 98.7 98.6 100.5
May 14 100.4 101.0 100.6 100.3 98.9 98.6 98.7 100.7
Jun 14 100.4 101.0 100.6 100.1 99.0 98.6 98.8 100.8
Jul 14 100.4 100.8 100.5 99.9 99.1 98.6 98.8 100.9
Aug 14 100.4 100.7 100.5 99.8 99.2 98.6 98.9 100.8
Sep 14 100.4 100.6 100.4 99.8 99.3 98.7 99.0 100.5
Oct 14 100.3 100.4 100.5 99.8 99.3 98.8 99.1 100.2
Nov 14 100.3 100.3 100.5 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.2 99.9
Dec 14 100.2 100.3 100.6 99.8 99.3 99.0 99.3 99.5
Jan 15 100.2 100.2 100.7 99.8 99.4 99.1 99.5 99.3

*Source: Bloomberg ‡MICEX rates †Source: OECD

Note: A rising composite leading indicator (CLI) reading points to an economic expansion if the index is above 100 and a recovery if it is below 100. A CLI that is declining points to an economic downturn if it is above 100 and a slowdown if it is below 100.