Economic indices Global Economic Outlook, Q3 2015

GDP growth rates, inflation rates, major currencies versus the US dollar, yield curves, composite median GDP forecasts, composite median currency forecasts, OECD composite leading indicators.

GEO_Q3_Indices_Figure1

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GEO_Q3_Indices_Figure5

Yield curves (as of June 19, 2015)*

US Treasury bonds & notes UK gilts Eurozone govt. benchmark Japan sovereign Brazil govt. benchmark China sovereign India govt. actives Russia‡
3 months 0.00 0.52 -0.19 0.00 14.04 1.70 7.67 9.99
1 year 0.22 0.49 -0.15 0.01 14.25 1.84 7.68 10.31
5 years 1.63 1.50 0.14 0.10 12.78 3.34 7.87 11.27
10 years 2.33 2.04 0.81 0.45 12.55 3.61 7.70 10.85

Composite median GDP forecasts (as of June 19, 2015)*

US UK Eurozone Japan Brazil China Russia
2015 2.2 2.5 1.5 0.9 -1.2 7 -3.6
2016 2.8 2.4 1.7 1.5 1 6.7 0.5
2017 2.7 2.4 1.5 0.7 2 6.5 1.5

Composite median currency forecasts (as of June 19, 2015)*

Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 2015 2016 2017
GBP-USD 1.51 1.5 1.49 1.5 1.5 1.52 1.57
Euro-USD 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.1 1.14
USD-Yen 125 125 126 126 125 127 127
USD-Brazilian real 3.25 3.3 3.32 3.35 3.3 3.38 3.58
USD-Chinese yuan 6.21 6.2 6.2 6.19 6.2 6.15 6.1
USD-Indian rupee 64.33 64.6 64.75 65.6 64.6 65 62
USD-Russian ruble 56.1 56 57 55 56 56.5 55.97

OECD composite leading indicators (amplitude adjusted)†

US UK Eurozone Japan Brazil China India Russia Federation
Apr 13 100.2 99.9 99.2 100.3 99.9 100.1 99.0 99.1
May 13 100.3 100.0 99.3 100.5 99.6 100.1 98.9 99.1
Jun 13 100.3 100.1 99.5 100.7 99.4 100.1 98.8 99.1
Jul 13 100.4 100.3 99.7 100.8 99.2 100.1 98.7 99.2
Aug 13 100.4 100.5 99.9 100.9 99.1 100.0 98.6 99.3
Sep 13 100.4 100.7 100.1 101.1 99.1 100.0 98.6 99.5
Oct 13 100.4 100.9 100.3 101.2 99.1 99.9 98.5 99.6
Nov 13 100.4 101.0 100.4 101.3 99.1 99.7 98.5 99.7
Dec 13 100.3 101.0 100.5 101.3 99.1 99.5 98.5 99.8
Jan 14 100.3 101.0 100.6 101.2 99.0 99.3 98.5 100.0
Feb 14 100.3 101.0 100.7 101.1 99.0 99.1 98.5 100.1
Mar 14 100.3 101.0 100.7 100.8 98.9 98.9 98.6 100.3
Apr 14 100.3 101.0 100.7 100.6 98.9 98.7 98.6 100.5
May 14 100.4 101.0 100.6 100.3 98.9 98.6 98.7 100.7
Jun 14 100.4 101.0 100.6 100.1 99.0 98.6 98.8 100.8
Jul 14 100.4 100.8 100.5 99.9 99.1 98.6 98.8 100.9
Aug 14 100.4 100.7 100.5 99.8 99.2 98.6 98.9 100.8
Sep 14 100.4 100.6 100.4 99.8 99.3 98.7 99.0 100.5
Oct 14 100.3 100.4 100.5 99.8 99.3 98.8 99.1 100.2
Nov 14 100.3 100.3 100.5 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.2 99.9
Dec 14 100.2 100.3 100.6 99.8 99.3 99.0 99.3 99.5
Jan 15 100.2 100.2 100.7 99.8 99.4 99.1 99.5 99.3
Feb 15 99.8 100.2 100.6 99.9 99.3 98.0 99.0 99.2
Mar 15 99.7 100.1 100.7 99.9 99.1 97.7 99.0 99.3
Apr 15 99.5 100.0 100.7 100.0 99.0 97.5 99.0 99.6

*Source: Bloomberg ‡MICEX rates †Source: OECD

Note: A rising composite leading indicator (CLI) reading points to an economic expansion if the index is above 100 and a recovery if it is below 100. A CLI that is declining points to an economic downturn if it is above 100 and a slowdown if it is below 100.