Economic indices Global Economic Outlook, Q3 2016

GDP growth rates, inflation rates, major currencies versus the US dollar, yield curves, composite median GDP forecasts, composite median currency forecasts, OECD composite leading indicators.

GEO_Q3_16_Appendix_Figure-1

GEO_Q3_16_Appendix_Figure-2

GEO_Q3_16_Appendix_Figure-3

GEO_Q3_16_Appendix_Figure-4

GEO_Q3_16_Appendix_Figure-5

Yield curves (as of June 27, 2016)*

  US Treasury Bonds & Notes

UK Gilts

Eurozone Govt. Benchmark Japan Sovereign Canada Sovereign Brazil Govt. Benchmark China Sovereign India Govt. Bo nds South Africa Sovereign Russia*
3 Months 0.25 0.45 -0.54 -0.27 0.50 14.16 2.30 6.71 8.00 10.53
1 Year 0.47 0.30 -0.53 -0.31 0.52 13.33 2.42 6.98 - 9.88
5 Years 1.07 0.57 -0.53 -0.27 0.64 12.45 2.87 7.41 8.89 8.79
10 Years 1.56 1.09 -0.05 -0.17 1.16 12.42 2.91 7.46 9.09 8.60

Composite median GDP forecasts (as of June 27, 2016)*

  US UK Eurozone Japan Canada Brazil China India South Africa Russia
2016 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.6 1.4 -3.5 6.5 7.5 0.5 -0.9
2017 2.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 2 0.9 6.2 7.6 1.3 1.2
2018 2.1 2.2 1.6 0.6 2.2 1.8 6.2 7.8 1.9 1.5

Composite median currency forecasts (as of June 27, 2016)*

  Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 2016 2017 2018
GBP-USD 1.47 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.52 1.55
Euro-USD 1.11 1.1 1.1 1.11 1.1 1.11 1.15
USD-Yen 110 112 111.5 112 112 114.5 113
USD-Canadian Dollar 1.3 1.31 1.31 1.3 1.31 1.25 1.3
USD-Brazilian Real 3.7 3.75 3.8 3.96 3.75 3.95 4.1
USD-Chinese Yuan 6.6 6.7 6.73 6.75 6.7 6.8 6.9
USD-Indian Rupee 67.83 68.5 68.57 68.5 68.5 68.82 67.59
USD-SA Rand 15.7 16 16.07 16.2 16 15.42 14.68
USD-Russian Ruble 66.67 68 66.42 66.75 68 65.75 63

OECD composite leading indicators (Amplitude adjusted)†

  United States United Kingdom Euro area Japan Canada Brazil China India South Africa Russian Federation
Jan 13 100.0 99.9 98.7 99.7 99.6 100.5 100.7 99.4 100.7 99.5
Feb 13 100.1 99.9 98.8 99.9 99.5 100.3 100.8 99.3 100.7 99.5
Mar 13 100.2 100.0 98.9 100.1 99.5 100.1 100.8 99.2 100.7 99.4
Apr 13 100.3 100.0 99.0 100.4 99.5 99.9 100.9 99.1 100.7 99.4
May 13 100.4 100.1 99.2 100.6 99.6 99.7 100.9 99.0 100.6 99.4
Jun 13 100.5 100.3 99.3 100.8 99.6 99.5 101.0 98.9 100.6 99.5
Jul 13 100.5 100.5 99.5 100.9 99.7 99.2 101.0 98.8 100.6 99.6
Aug 13 100.5 100.8 99.7 101.1 99.8 99.1 101.0 98.7 100.6 99.8
Sep 13 100.5 101.0 99.9 101.2 100.0 98.9 101.0 98.6 100.6 100.0
Oct 13 100.5 101.2 100.1 101.4 100.0 98.8 101.0 98.6 100.5 100.2
Nov 13 100.6 101.3 100.3 101.4 100.1 98.7 100.9 98.5 100.5 100.4
Dec 13 100.6 101.4 100.4 101.5 100.1 98.6 100.9 98.5 100.4 100.6
Jan 14 100.6 101.4 100.4 101.4 100.1 98.4 100.8 98.5 100.3 100.8
Feb 14 100.6 101.4 100.5 101.2 100.2 98.4 100.7 98.5 100.2 101.0
Mar 14 100.7 101.5 100.5 101.0 100.2 98.4 100.6 98.6 100.1 101.2
Apr 14 100.7 101.5 100.4 100.8 100.3 98.5 100.5 98.6 100.0 101.5
May 14 100.8 101.5 100.4 100.6 100.3 98.6 100.4 98.7 100.0 101.7
Jun 14 100.8 101.5 100.3 100.3 100.4 98.7 100.3 98.8 100.1 101.9
Jul 14 100.8 101.4 100.2 100.2 100.4 98.8 100.2 98.9 100.2 101.9
Aug 14 100.8 101.3 100.1 100.1 100.5 98.8 100.0 98.9 100.3 101.9
Sep 14 100.8 101.2 100.1 100.0 100.4 98.8 99.9 99.0 100.3 101.6
Oct 14 100.8 101.1 100.1 100.0 100.4 98.7 99.7 99.1 100.4 101.3
Nov 14 100.7 101.0 100.1 100.0 100.3 98.5 99.6 99.1 100.4 101.0
Dec 14 100.7 100.9 100.2 100.1 100.3 98.3 99.4 99.2 100.3 100.6
Jan 15 100.6 100.9 100.3 100.1 100.2 98.1 99.2 99.3 100.2 100.3
Feb 15 100.5 100.8 100.4 100.2 100.1 97.9 99.0 99.3 100.2 100.2
Mar 15 100.4 100.7 100.5 100.2 100.0 97.8 98.9 99.4 100.1 100.2
Apr 15 100.3 100.6 100.5 100.2 99.9 97.8 98.8 99.5 100.1 100.3
May 15 100.2 100.5 100.5 100.2 99.9 97.8 98.7 99.6 100.1 100.3
Jun 15 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.2 99.9 97.8 98.5 99.6 100.0 100.2
Jul 15 99.9 100.1 100.5 100.2 99.8 97.8 98.3 99.7 99.9 100.0
Aug 15 99.7 99.9 100.5 100.1 99.7 97.8 98.1 99.8 99.7 99.8
Sep 15 99.5 99.7 100.6 100.0 99.6 97.9 97.9 99.9 99.6 99.5
Oct 15 99.3 99.5 100.6 99.9 99.5 97.9 97.8 99.9 99.6 99.1
Nov 15 99.2 99.3 100.6 99.8 99.3 97.8 97.8 100.0 99.5 98.7
Dec 15 99.0 99.2 100.6 99.6 99.2 97.8 97.7 100.0 99.5 98.4
Jan 16 98.9 99.1 100.5 99.5 99.1 97.7 97.6 100.1 99.5 98.0
Feb 16 98.9 99.2 100.5 99.6 99.3 98.0 98.4 100.2 99.5 98.3
Mar 16 98.9 99.2 100.4 99.6 99.4 98.3 98.4 100.3 99.5 98.6
Apr 16 98.9 99.1 100.4 99.6 99.5 98.8 98.4 100.4 99.4 99.2

*Source: Bloomberg ‡MICEX rates †Source: OECD

Note: A rising composite leading indicator (CLI) reading points to an economic expansion if the index is above 100 and a recovery if it is below 100. A CLI that is declining points to an economic downturn if it is above 100 and a slowdown if it is below 100.